The Syrian and Libyan Crises

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In Libya the conflict between the miltias and the government is alarming and there are no shortage of arms. The government does not have control over the vast, thinly populated country. Such a situation helped the rebels defeat Gaddafi and is currently perilous to the stability of the government.

A dictator died and a quasi-democracy is being built, yet a sizeable portion of the rebels who helped defeat the Gaddafi regime were Al Qaeda members and sympathizers.

The abundance of weapons in the hands of extremists forms a precarious country. Libya will witness major clashes over the next years. The militias in Libya have a large cache of advanced weapons, which they will use to try and garner more power. Logic allows us to presume that these militias will not willingly give up their weapons. A price needs to be paid and that price may very well be the formation of a unity government that encompasses sympathizers of Al Qaeda, they will become another Pakistan.

This leads us to Syria in which a civil war is being fought. The government controls the heavy weaponry and that is the reason it has survived. The feared Republican Guard is made up of mainly Alawite fighters, which is the religion of the President and the ruling elite in Syria. The Syrian “conflict” has already turned into sectarian war in which the Sunni’s are pitted against the Alawites.

 

Russia is also using Syria as a way tohinder US influence in the Middle East. It was no secret that Vladimir Putin was upset and angry at the way NATO fulfilled its mission in Libya. He was upset at the way Gaddafi was treated. I believe he thinks that the US will try and cause a revolution in Russia and he may share the same fate.That is the reason Russia has been labeling NGO’s and other groups that are funded by foreign investors as “Foreign Agents.”

Back to the issue at hand, in a previous post I warned that if Syrian rebels are armed, Syria will end up like Libya. I still believe that to be the case. The Syrian people are suffering, and the violence is only getting worse.

The geographic location of Syria makes it a more important issue than Iran. A chaotic Syria drenched in civil war would be disastrous to Lebanon, Iraq, turkey, Jordan and even Israel.If the Chemical arsenal of Syria falls in the hands of Hezbollah or even Al Qaeda, it will cause a disaster.

I do not have intelligence info on what is happening on the ground in Syria and both sides are spreading propaganda. The information minister of Syria, Omran al-Zoabi, yesterday reminded me of former Iraqi Information Minister, Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf, who claimed that the American troops were committing suicide by the hundreds in Iraq, and that the Americans are on the verge of defeat.

The Syrian minister claimed that the rebels were on the verge of defeat and that the regime will triumph. I do not have the required information to proceed with advice to the international community. There are so many factors that a decision should be based on, and I believe that a decision will be made after the November election. It is sad that people are dying and the international community is idle, yet that is Realpolitik. Each country will look out for its own self-interest. In the words of Thomas Hobbes, “Homo Homini Lupus est”.

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