“Morning Joe” host, Joe Scarborough often refers to the Republican Party’s futile efforts to win the State of Pennsylvania as “Fool’s Gold,” because every election cycle, the Party invests an exorbitant amount of time and money into the state, just to see the fruits of their labor on Election Night slowly enveloped into atrophy, like a failed experiment. The Last Republican to win the State of Pennsylvania was President George H. W. Bush in 1988. Democrats in the State of Pennsylvania outnumber Republicans by about 1.2 million; but perhaps due to the apathy of many Democrats in the State, Republicans have managed to triumph state-wide, winning races dis-proportionally relative to their numbers in the population.
A fact which enables the RNC to entertain false hopes, thus, the Republicans are at it again. They are being baited like a common fish ostentatiously. Except this time, their delirious delusion has engendered a new level of intensity with the addition of a few more so-called swing states, potentially up for grabs: Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin, all of which are traditional or Democratic leaning states. The national polls have been all over the place during this election cycle, except for one consensus.
The polls in said states are closing fast, especially in my Home State of Minnesota, and Michigan. Dissatisfaction with the economy, the President’s job approval and the often unreasonable impatience of the American People are opening a window for Governor Romney to move up in the polls. But Republican Presidential Candidates have a ceiling in these states; no matter how grandiose is the Party’s view of their chances. Minnesota hasn’t voted for a Republican in a Presidential Election since 1972, Wisconsin since 1984, and Michigan since 1988.
|Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama||NBC/WSJ/Marist||Obama 49, Romney 46||Obama +3|
|Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama||Franklin & Marshall||Obama 49, Romney 45||Obama +4|
|Minnesota: Romney vs. Obama||KSTP/SurveyUSA||Obama 50, Romney 43||Obama +7|
Some Democrats indeed are in a state of panic as a result of these ominous poll numbers, because the President’s chances of winning a second term without Michigan or Minnesota are grave at best. Though it would amount to political malpractice if a major political party didn’t protect its turf electorally, many Democrats response to Gov. Romney’s serge in these state polls are a bit of an over-reaction. But I can’t blame them really; for there is an old West African Proverb. “If one has been bitten by a snake once, he/she is likely to take extra precautions even around worms.” So in response, the DNC has poured more money into these states, including sending top surrogates like formal President Clinton and Vice President Biden to campaign on behalf of President.
Governor Romney claims that he is expanding the electoral map; I disagree with his assertion because it’s not supported by the facts. Governor Romney can remind voters that he was born in Detroit Michigan or how he loves American Automobiles at every campaign event, until the cows come home. But history and demographic trends shows that the Governor and his Running-Mate are likely to lose their home states. For voters seldom, if ever vote for a Presidential Candidate because he or she hails from their home State. Rather; they vote based on the candidates proposed policies or lack thereof.
Furthermore, Governor Romney isn’t going to win my Home State of Minnesota; the home of Liberal icons like Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale. Neither is he going win reliably Democratic States like Wisconsin and Michigan; unless a good portion of the Democratic base boycott this election cycle. Thus, any aspiration to the contrary is nothing more than Fool’s Gold, as I wrote in another post (The Republican Party’s Bleak Electoral Future). If President Obama wins a second term, he will do so largely because the demographic trends favor the Democratic Party and will for the foreseeable future. Unless the Republican Party can tailor its message to attract more minorities, a fact made even more profound by the Republican Party’s antagonistic and often perceived callous tone on immigration, among other things.