I read an interesting article about the Iran nuclear crisis today. The article states that a nuclear Iran may very well be a blessing in disguise. The main point is that Iran is a rational state, and would act in its self-interest. After acquiring nuclear capabilities it would feel more secure and would try to be more open to the western world.The article gave the example of China during the days of Chairman Mao, along with other such cases.
I do believe Iran is a rational player in the international scene, yet I believe a nuclear Iran would start an arms race in the Middle East. In the article the writer claimed that Israel has nuclear weapons and that has not caused an arms race. Therefore he states that Iran having nuclear weapons will not cause one.
I completely disagree with that statement due to the fact that a nuclear Shi’ite Iran will force Sunni Saudi Arabia to acquire nuclear weapons. The Arab countries are opposed to Israel, but their real enemy is Iran. We can see a proxy war being fought in Syria and Lebanon as we speak.
In fairness to the article, I do believe that there is a possibility that if Iran feels safer at home they would stop funding Hezbollah in Lebanon. That may very well be an outcome, but I am skeptical. Iran will not stop its pursuit of Nuclear power, and they very well know that an attack on them is highly unlikely.
Iran has the capability to burn the Middle East, and unfortunately Hezbollah has sleeper cells all over the world. I do not envy the decision makers, but at the end of the day they have to calculate if impeding a Nuclear Iran is worth the risk.
Dutch-Israeli historian Martin Van Creveld agrees that Iran is a rational state, and that it will keep vying to become a nuclear power. It is in their national interest to do so. Creveld hypothetically stated for a Dutch Weekly Publication called Elsevier the dangers of a dooms day scenario if Israeli existence is threatened: “We possess several hundred atomic warheads and rockets and can launch them at targets in all directions, perhaps even at Rome. Most European capitals are targets for our air force” (note: this is not Creveld’s opinion rather he is simply stating the capabilities of the IDF).
The last thing we need is an Iranian regime feeling empowered by a similar notion.